Archive for September, 2008

More on the D-word, and a tale from Antioch

Monday, September 29th, 2008

Now, here is what a real depression looks like:

Now, I try to imagine this having happened at the WaMu in dowtown Redwood City, and it looks nothing like this. First, the WaMu is surrounded by Redwoods and palm trees. The sun is shining all the friggin time. Aside from that, we have the FDIC. That doesn’t stop people from withdrawing funds. Waiting for a check from FDIC is not comforting, even though the check has never failed. There’s a first time for everything.

Another reason we don’t see scenes like this has to do with technology. In cyberspace, Bailey has no place to give speeches while people make electronic transfers out of their accounts. That’s exactly what I did last Friday.

I do most of my banking with Navy Federal Credit Union. I used to say, “If Navy Federal fails, we’ve got bigger problems”. Well, we’ve already got big problems. So. Friday, I distributed some of my life savings out of NFCU. No point having all my eggs in one basket. I took some of those eggs and put them in a local bank, of all places. It turns out that local banks are actually doing OK, since they make local loans and they didn’t all succumb to the frenzy of the subprime nonsense.

While we were waiting for the account to process, the clerk told me an interesting story that happened in Antioch, CA–a far flung East Bay subburb about half way to Stockton. It seems that in a certain cul-de-sac, almost all the neighbors got in over their head with bad loans. A certain person on this cul-de-sac, with the cash to do it, offered to re-fi or purchase and rent back the homes to these people. They all got to stay in their homes. The cul-de-sac is presumeably green, neatly trimmed, and well taken care of; unlike other areas which are peppered with the distinctive brown lawns and sherrif’s notices of foreclosure. The bailout artist is already pulling in a nice rental income, and will probably come out way ahead in the long run.

It just goes to show, crisis breeds opportunity.

California is a Surreal Place for a Depression

Monday, September 29th, 2008

The thought occured to me just now, that California is a surreal place for a Depression. OK, OK, we’re not in a depression; but the mainstream media keeps tossing around the D-word, and will continue to do so until Obama gets elected or until it’s become too ludicrous. At any rate, since I’m out of work… well, you know what they say: A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours..

So, after looking over some pix from last week, picking the beaties and posting them to flickr, it got me thinking. If you’re going to be depressed in a Depression, California is a funny place to be. If you’re going to be depressed, you want gritty New York streets, the buildings so high you can’t see the sun. There should be steam coming out of grates. The sky should be so grey that it looks like a black and white movie in real life. California? Not many tall buildings here unless you go to SF’s financial district. Sunshine all the time from April to November here. Oh sure, you can go to the coast for fog, but then you’re at the beach. You can’t get depressed there. It’s full of people having fun, exercising, walking their dogs, surfing, or just being different and quirky in some sophisticated way that you can’t quite put your finger on.

California is so un-depression, that it was even the destination for Oakies seeking work in Grapes of Wrath, set in the real Depression. Nevermind that the book didn’t have such a happy ending. The message was clear: California, land of not-depressing.

Nevertheless, people do get down here, if only because they might have to leave. To live here is to understand why the Spanish took it from the Natives, why the Anglos took it from the Spanish, and why the Spanish want to take it back. Oh sure, there might be some serious unrest over that… maybe if this was Quebec, we’d have the problems they had. This is California. There is a lot of arguing about illegal immigrants on both sides, but it hasn’t boiled into a conflict. It just boils the melting pot. No time for fighting. Surf’s up. Maybe we’ll fight manyana.

No time for depression. Surf’s up. Wall street wakes up at 6:30. The fog hasn’t even burned off yet. Roll over and sleep in a bit more. Redwoods against blue skies now. The market is half done. I check it and it’s really not that bad. No job leads. Time to take a hike through the upscale suburbs and into the golden hills. Staying fit is important if you want to keep the blues at bay. Staying fit is important to everyone here. I know that reality may dictate that I don’t get to stay here forever. Or, I might have to move to a more affordable but less desireable part of the area. For now, I’m on the San Francisco peninsula and trying to figure out how to stay here. Depression? I wish I could be depressed in California forever.

Thanks Fed

Friday, September 26th, 2008

A few hours ago I heard the Fed seized WaMu and forced them to sell out to JP Morgan. Finally! We don’t have to watch any more of those stupid WaMu ads on TV. I wish I had a dime for every time that Asian chick rode that pink streamliner across the salt flats. It seems like every financial disaster is characterised by one or more companies that advertise way too much. Enron had it’s infamous “Why” ad campaign. For me, the WaMu campaign is etched in my brain, and will symbolize the crisis on some level. And worse yet, they continued to pump money into these ads, even while customers were lining up to withdraw funds. Insanity.

Of course, the pulling of ads like that will have an impact on the ad industry… more rippling effects on the economy. At least we don’t have to watch those ads anymore.

Let’s Put Some Lipstick on this Stupidity

Thursday, September 11th, 2008

Well, it’s begun. The phase of the campaign where they sink to the level of kindergartners. Standby for another couple of months like this, punctuated by a few hours of serious debate where the questions are scripted and the answers rehearsed.

I Swam in the Pacific

Monday, September 8th, 2008

Before I start this, I want to caution all of you kiddies out there not to try this unless you are with somebody and/or know your limits and are a very strong swimmer. OK. I swam in the Pacific last week. This may not sound like a big deal to many of you. For those of you who don’t know, the water near San Francisco is COLD.

Over the past few weeks I had observed that the water was getting warmer. It had gotten to the point where instead of a thousand needles stabbing your feet, it was a hundred, and then no needles at all. It seemed to me that the water was just a bit colder than Ocean City, MD near where I grew up. Ocean City had always been my limit as far as cold water is concerned. Later I confirmed that June water temperatures in OC are about 65 F. In Half Moon Bay, where I swam, the temperature could be expected to be about 60. That 5 degrees makes a world of difference, since water coducts heat away from your body much faster than air.

First, this wouldn’t have been practical if I hadn’t finally found my shorts. I was looking for something else and in the process of digging boxes out of my closet I found the shorts. OK. Got shorts. Check.

I drove to Half Moon Bay, where I usually go when I want some beach. The weather was hot. There was no fog. There was a good off-shore breeze which means warm dry air so that you don’t freeze when you get out of the water.

I made sure to leave my phone and wallet in the car, but I took my car keys and shoes. I took a bit of a gamble leaving my shoes, glasses and car keys on the beach, covered by my shirt… but they would have had to walk around pushing the button next to every Honda parked near the beach, and I was not parked at the nearest lot so had somebody taken the keys they would have had to put in some effort, by which time I would have run to one of the art galleries, or Miramar restaurant and asked to use the phone. In the future though, having the spare car key on my person is probably not a bad idea.

I decided to let my waist-length hair fly loose. I had heard at least one horror story of hair getting impossible to comb out after being in the ocean, but mine was already forming loose dreds and I figured that would protect it. If a hair is already in a lock, it’s not going to leave for another lock. The locks themselves won’t form a huge megalock. Only when all your hairs are loose and have no “allegiance” to a particular lock will they possibly form the MOAD (Mother Of All Dreds) and that might be impossible to comb out. I usually have very little trouble combing out the little dreds. That was my theory going in.

OK so no big deal, I wade into the piddly part of the surf. Well, there was a bit of a surprise today in that the waves were rather large. One of the surfers on the beach informed me that there was a “south swell”. Some of these waves looked to be 8 feet, no kidding. I wasn’t going to go out that far. The teenagers in their wetsuits were going out, and they weren’t surfing–they were just swimming in the surf enjoying the ride of getting pounded by these waves. This was not a good surfing spot anyway. The wave falls over all at the same time instead of making a nice curl that sweeps parallel to the beach. It looked like they were really enjoying getting a pouding–in their wetsuits. Virtually everybody wears a wetsuit. To not wear one is a bit of a test. Even on a warm day like today, you can usually count the bare skinned swimmers on one hand. I don’t consider myself any kind of a “polar bear” so I knew I might chicken out.

I stepped out a bit more, and let my shorts get wet. Still not too bad.

Of course, this is no swimming pool. The waves come in and decide what you are going to get. You make a decision every time a wave approaches.

I splashed some water on my chest. Ooohh… OK… feeling pretty intense now.

I ducked down briefly to immerse the lower part of my torso. An instant reaction of rapid breathing kicks in. This is the natural impulse that kills people who are suddenly immersed in cold water. You hit the cold. Your respiration increases. You suck in a lungfull of water. You die.

I cautiously immerse my whole torso for a few seconds more, and get used to the idea of hitting the water.

Finally, there is a break where it looks like no huge waves are going to come. I take advantage of it, plunge all the way in, let the water support me, and “dog paddle” about 6 feet forward. Many people would not consider this true swimming, since dog paddle is not an official stroke. It’s good enough for me, and that’s as ambitious as I got. As far as I’m concerned, it’s swimming and you can’t say I didn’t do it.

The surf picked up again. Two medium sized waves came towards me and converged into one wave that was slightly over my head, roiling with foam and sand.

Now, the standard surfer way to deal with this is to “duck dive” it; but that presumes you are comfortable swimming out the other side. Knowing not only that I was inexperienced with cold water swimming, but also that this ugly monster was carrying much sand as well as water, I chose to let it pound me back towards the beach. It picked me up and did just that. Briefly it seemed I was lifted off my feet, but I was not thrown down and soon regained my composure.

A part of me wanted to try a full blown swim, to see if I could get aclimated to the point where I could swim with confidence.

Prudence prevailed, and I headed back to dry off.

If I ever decide to swim the pacific again, I’ll be joining the wetsuited crowd.

Oh, and my hair? My theory proved correct. It was no different than taking a shower. Granted, I didn’t immerse my head and I wasn’t out very long. If I had, it might have been a different story. When my hair was just shoulder length, I played in the Florida surf for a few hours, and had to go out to dinner looking like a madman. That tangled mess took hours to comb out. With longer hair in loose dreds, would that day have been better or worse? I don’t know.

The “I hate blogs” feeling is coming back

Friday, September 5th, 2008

I changed my tagline from “yet another WordPress blog” to “If we could sum it up in a tagline, it wouldn’t be interesting”. I hit refresh. Nothing. I logged out. Nothing. I came back today. It was changed. It looks like WordPress connects to a DB on the back end. The DB takes some time to update. It could have happened any time last night. OK, it probably happened a few minutes after I logged off… but what, praytell, was all that computing power doing, just to change a string?

Of course, this is probably all fixed in the latest version of WordPress (or so I’d hope), but Yahoo apparently isn’t ready to upgrade yet. So, this is partially an “I hate Yahoo” rant.

It all comes back to “If you want something done right, do it yourself”, but then the answer to that is always “what would I really gain by doing my site manually, or writing a better blogger?”. Well, I’d gain the PHP experience to put on my resume, which might not be such an awful thing since I’m looking for a job; but in the meantime I’ll keep posting here. If I decide to do a manual site, I’ll post updates on the progress here until the manual site is good enough to replace the blog.

Perfection Isn’t Perfect

Wednesday, September 3rd, 2008

I spent a lot of time considering “doing my own thing” to make a web site. I wasn’t going to use blog software. I had all these visions of “how things ought to be”. Being a programmer, I wanted full control. Then, I realized that I was being a perfectionist in the most negative sense of the word. Perfectionism isn’t bad; but it’s a double-edged sword. The good side? Some of the best music, art, literature etc. is often done by people who insist on every detail of the work being done properly.

The down side of perfectionism is that it can lead to paralysis. I’ve seen this happening in my life at times, and I noticed it was happening with my web site. I spent enough time thinking about “the ideal site”, and didn’t do anything. This is kind of funny, because on some of my software jobs I’ve been known to complain about the people who want to plan every little detail before writing any code, and how nothing ever gets done.

When you find that your desire for perfection is leading to innaction, it’s time to pull back from your ideal.

Note that “pulling back from the ideal” is not the same as compromising your principals. For example, if your ideal is the build an electric car and you can’t build an affordable one, then maybe building an expensive one is acceptable. Maybe altering the ideal and building a high-mileage plugin hybrid is an acceptable compromise. Selling all your patents to GM and joining the SUV division would not be an acceptable compromise. That’s the difference.

I’ve found that the pattern of “pulling back a little” from my ideals has lead to some success in my life. Note, however, that you have to have an ideal or a dream to pull back from before you can do that. Some people have no dreams or ideals. I can’t really relate to that. A real life example for me? Six or Seven years ago, I realized that I would never be an “all in one” software entrepreneur. Having grown up in the era when teenagers were writing games and driving off in Feraris… well, that was a dream. At some point, I pulled back and realized I had to partner with somebody. Security was in all the want ads… so, I pulled back just a bit from the ideal of being a one-man superstar and joined a 4-man startup. That lead to 5 solid years of work, writing software that goes into NIDPS (Network Intrusion Detection and Prevention Systems).

Now, that sequence of events has come to an end. The company I ended up working for layed me off. The cycle begins anew.

Hello world!

Tuesday, September 2nd, 2008

Welcome to WordPress. This is your first post. Edit or delete it, then start blogging!